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HEIA:EURONEXT AMSTERDAMHeineken NV Analysis

Data as of 2026-06-05 - not real-time

€65.50

Latest Price

5/10Risk

Risk Level: Medium

Executive Summary

Heineken’s price is currently trading below its short‑term moving averages, with the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs virtually overlapping, indicating a modest downside bias. The RSI sits in the low‑forties and the MACD shows a bearish divergence, suggesting limited upward momentum in the near term. However, the recent first‑quarter update highlighted a solid performance with modest revenue growth, a notable lift in licensed volume, and an improvement in net revenue, while the share‑buyback programme continues to support price stability.
Fundamentally, the stock trades at a mid‑range PE, offers an attractive dividend yield with a payout ratio well under the sustainability threshold, and analysts’ price targets imply a sizable upside potential. The balance sheet shows high leverage, but cash flow generation remains healthy, and the low beta points to limited market volatility relative to broader indices.

Market Outlook

Short Term

< 1 year
Neutral
Model confidence: 7/10

Key Factors

  • price below short‑term averages and bearish MACD
  • increasing trading volume supporting liquidity
  • ongoing share‑buyback providing price support

Medium Term

1–3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • analyst price targets indicating significant upside
  • steady dividend yield with sustainable payout
  • improving operating cash flow and modest revenue recovery

Long Term

> 3 years
Positive
Model confidence: 8/10

Key Factors

  • strong brand portfolio in a defensive consumer segment
  • global geographic diversification reducing single‑market exposure
  • low systematic risk reflected by a very low beta

Key Metrics & Analysis

Financial Health

Revenue Growth-2.80%
Profit Margin6.56%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROE9.94%
ROA4.31%
Debt/Equity93.52
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow€5.0B
Free Cash Flow€2.1B

Technical Analysis

TrendNeutral
RSI43.0
Support€63.90
Resistance€71.34
MA 20€66.93
MA 50€66.92
MA 200€68.91
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.93

Valuation

Fair Value€24.45
Target Price€85.38
Upside/Downside30.34%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.90%

Risk Assessment

Beta0.10
Volatility27.10%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow

This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.