HEIA:EURONEXT AMSTERDAMHeineken NV Analysis
Data as of 2026-06-05 - not real-time
€65.50
Latest Price
5/10Risk
Risk Level: Medium
Executive Summary
Heineken’s price is currently trading below its short‑term moving averages, with the 20‑day and 50‑day SMAs virtually overlapping, indicating a modest downside bias. The RSI sits in the low‑forties and the MACD shows a bearish divergence, suggesting limited upward momentum in the near term. However, the recent first‑quarter update highlighted a solid performance with modest revenue growth, a notable lift in licensed volume, and an improvement in net revenue, while the share‑buyback programme continues to support price stability.
Fundamentally, the stock trades at a mid‑range PE, offers an attractive dividend yield with a payout ratio well under the sustainability threshold, and analysts’ price targets imply a sizable upside potential. The balance sheet shows high leverage, but cash flow generation remains healthy, and the low beta points to limited market volatility relative to broader indices.
Fundamentally, the stock trades at a mid‑range PE, offers an attractive dividend yield with a payout ratio well under the sustainability threshold, and analysts’ price targets imply a sizable upside potential. The balance sheet shows high leverage, but cash flow generation remains healthy, and the low beta points to limited market volatility relative to broader indices.
Market Outlook
Short Term
< 1 yearNeutral
Model confidence: 7/10
Key Factors
- price below short‑term averages and bearish MACD
- increasing trading volume supporting liquidity
- ongoing share‑buyback providing price support
Medium Term
1–3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- analyst price targets indicating significant upside
- steady dividend yield with sustainable payout
- improving operating cash flow and modest revenue recovery
Long Term
> 3 yearsPositive
Model confidence: 8/10
Key Factors
- strong brand portfolio in a defensive consumer segment
- global geographic diversification reducing single‑market exposure
- low systematic risk reflected by a very low beta
Key Metrics & Analysis
Financial Health
Revenue Growth-2.80%
Profit Margin6.56%
P/E Ratio19.6
ROE9.94%
ROA4.31%
Debt/Equity93.52
P/B Ratio2.0
Op. Cash Flow€5.0B
Free Cash Flow€2.1B
Technical Analysis
TrendNeutral
RSI43.0
Support€63.90
Resistance€71.34
MA 20€66.93
MA 50€66.92
MA 200€68.91
MACDBearish
VolumeIncreasing
Fear & Greed Index93.93
Valuation
Fair Value€24.45
Target Price€85.38
Upside/Downside30.34%
GradeUndervalued
TypeBlend
Dividend Yield2.90%
Risk Assessment
Beta0.10
Volatility27.10%
Sector RiskLow
Reg. RiskMedium
Geo RiskMedium
Currency RiskMedium
Liquidity RiskLow
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This analysis may contain inaccuracies and is provided for informational and research purposes only. It is not personal investment advice, a recommendation, or an instruction to buy, sell, or hold any asset.